查看PDF原文 公告日期：2016-03-18

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　　金鹰商贸集团(03308) Effective immediately, we are discontinuing coverage of GoldenEagle Retail Group Limited (3308.HK) because of a reallocation ofresources. All prior research on Golden Eagle should no longer berelied upon. Our final rating on the stock is Equal-weight. The stock currently trades at2.1x P/B and 15.0x P/E on our 2016 estimates. We are EW despite potentialearnings pressure, with the view that Golden Eagle is disciplined in itsexpansion plan, which suggested fewer new store losses. In addition, the CEOMr. Su Kai will likely push more aggressive cost control measures, thusimplying possible higher productivity, in our view. We incorporate -2% and 0%SSSG for 2015 and 2016, respectively. Concession margin will likely be stableover the same period given slower growth of lower margin business. Our final price target is HK$9.00, which is based on 14x 2016e EPS ofHK$0.64. The forward P/E multiple we adopt is similar to its historical P/E levelsince 2013 when the industry downtrend started, and at a discount to Intime'sbase case P/E of 16x but higher than industry average of 11x given its resilientoperation and potential recovery in 2016 and onwards. Downside risk factors: Weaker SSSG and concession margin amid prolongedmacro slowdown; industry de-rating continues given eCommerce and industryover supply; slower-than-expected sales and profit contribution from keyflagship stores. Upside risk factors: Stronger SSSG and concession margin if industryconsolidation accelerates; industry re-rating given increased O2O chance witheCommerce players; better-than-expected cost control; faster-than-expectedmobile GMV contribution; better-than-expected margin improvement due toproduct mix change and increased scale.

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